Remember the last time you were home in the evening, there was little in your kitchen to eat but you didn’t want to go out? Then you had an idea – that you could concoct a delicious meal made from a variety of completely unrelated and forgotten frozen and semi-fresh food coupled with rarely used spices and other odd ingredients. That’s a lot like predicting the future. If you stay safe and conservative, you’re going to get close to what you expect. But, if you get all crazy (think stir fry Top Ramen and turkey jerky), your prediction will sound cool, but has a low probability of working out (unless you are on Top Chef).
So, I decided to take the low road by first providing some predictions that come from the experts and then cooking up the 5 Craziest CEP Predictions for 2012.
Gartner predicts that in 2012 companies will spend over $300M on CEP technology. In his new book ‘Event Processing for Business’, the father of CEP, David Luckham moves the conversation away from his first book (very technical) to discussing many business uses for CEP. His long-term prediction is that CEP become a ubiquitous part of almost all applications. The book provides examples of how CEP is used in areas like fraud detection, transportation, security, health care, energy and more.
5 Craziest CEP Predictions for 2012
1. CEP saves the BCS system. It’s hard not to read a college football story and stumble across another writer ridiculing the BCS system which relies on black box analytics to spit out rankings of teams and thus influence the national championship matchup. In 2012, the NCAA will add Complex Event Processing to combine coaching polls, Newtonian algorithms with real time social media fodder from Twitter and whatever comes next to adjust rankings in real-time. This leads to so much confusion that the NCAA finally gives in and creates a playoff system.
2. New CRM-Meets-CEP applications let consumers purchase products before they even know they want to. Proving that truly personalized offers are forever to be viewed as a future pipe dream, retailers begin to roll-out CEP applications that correlate when they’d like to sell a product with customers who have valid/non-expired credit cards on file to automate and simplify the buying experience. Retailers report their strongest revenues ever, but one quarter later report large cost-write downs as a result of returns. Still, many CEOs are pleased with the results saying, “we have the benefit of lazy customers and obscure refund policies giving us a larger than expected retention rate..”
3. A CNN CEP application analyzes the 2012 presidential debate in real-time. As a result of complicated analysis and correlation, the system is unable to keep track of any candidates’ position nor the political parties they represent. The application makes global headlines when it becomes the first computer system to plead for re-assignment or to be turned off.
4. A new social CEP cloud application predicts the next 3 failed marriages of Kim Kardashian. No one is surprised though.
5. In Jeopardy’s 2012 AI (Artificial Intelligence) Faceoff, A CEP-based application named Sherlock makes Watson look like a slow human being when it answers every single question correctly and shuts Watson out. But Sherlock becomes disgraced when it’s proven that Sherlock was having an affair with Apple’s Siri and used Siri to break into Alex Trebeck’s e-mail and get all the shows answers. Robert Downey Jr. signs on to play Sherlock in the movie. Watson ends up playing himself despite a strong audition by Jude Law.